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SOVEREIGN VIBE

Navigating Global Markets in a Fragmented World

Written by

Paul Della Guardia

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Deglobalization

I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

Sep 29, 2025

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8 min read

I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

Forecasting the future of trade, state power, and industrial policy was well worth the trouble.

Paul Della Guardia

South Africa

Aug 15, 2025

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7 min read

The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

The country's current account deficit is likely to widen only slightly due to tariffs.

Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

Jun 30, 2025

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10 min read

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

USD weakness and U.S. outflows have been a boon to EM in 2025, so far.

Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

Sep 29, 2025

•

8 min read

I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

Forecasting the future of trade, state power, and industrial policy was well worth the trouble.

Paul Della Guardia

South Africa

Aug 15, 2025

•

7 min read

The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

The country's current account deficit is likely to widen only slightly due to tariffs.

Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

Jun 30, 2025

•

10 min read

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

USD weakness and U.S. outflows have been a boon to EM in 2025, so far.

Paul Della Guardia

Geopolitics

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Jun 20, 2025

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10 min read

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Brent is still only at $77, VIX is contained, gold is trading flat. Bigger market risks lie elsewhere.

Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Jun 16, 2025

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11 min read

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Trump could well be ushering in a golden age for emerging market assets.

Paul Della Guardia

Egypt

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Jun 6, 2025

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10 min read

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Checklist: overvalued currency, high external debt, weak revenues, low reserves

Paul Della Guardia

El Salvador

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

May 30, 2025

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12 min read

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

Improvement on key macro-fiscal metrics in the region points to strengthening policy credibility

Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

May 23, 2025

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12 min read

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

Have a weaker dollar and the Covid inflation hangover eroded EM competitiveness?

Paul Della Guardia

El Salvador

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

May 16, 2025

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9 min read

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

Hint: this country exchanged some debt in 2023 and has since secured an IMF deal.

Paul Della Guardia

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