The Times They Are a-Changin'

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Today’s Spotlight section is a bit different: instead of the usual coverage on topics related to emerging market sovereign debt, I want to explain a major change here going forward. In last week’s edition, I wrote about how the distinction between “emerging” and “mature” markets has become less clear, which makes it more difficult to keep this newsletter focused on “emerging markets.”

This blurring of the lines has been a gradual process over time, with areas of the Eurozone periphery exhibiting EM behavior. Last decade’s Greek debt crisis is the most obvious example, while the European Central Bank’s government bond-buying masks fragilities in Italy and elsewhere.

And now that the new Trump administration has introduced a much higher level of policy volatility than markets, voters, and other stakeholders are accustomed to, continuing to write almost-exclusively about EM here makes less and less sense.

I’ve also been considering shifting the focus here away from sovereign debt. I know, I know: sovereign debt - especially the EM variety - is why many of you are subscribed here in the first place. Just hear me out.

When I started the Sovereign Vibe project, it wasn’t only to write about sovereign debt. It was also to cover the broader trends in the fragmenting geoeconomic landscape that fall under the term “deglobalization.” I see it as a re-establishment of national sovereignty at the expense of interdependence. It’s also a reordering of sovereign interests over the priorities of multinational corporations. Trump 2.0 is the latest and most striking example of this.

Moreover, it’s a real challenge to deliver data-driven value in real time on EM debt and EM macro without pricey Bloomberg and Haver data, or similar types of resources.

Another change that I’m making here will concern those who read this newsletter on email. So far this year, I have been providing more news updates. While many of you seem to like this - if your click rates are anything to go by - going forward I’ll be keeping the news update sections shorter so I can focus more on providing value via long-form updates.

These articles won’t be as data-driven as in the past, when I tended to lead with data visualizations. I’m grateful for all the positive feedback regarding my past charts, but crafting these often gets in the way of actually writing a good article.

Ultimately, it’s the ideas that matter most: more than the visual components, more than the news updates. So, since writing high-quality articles is how I can provide the most value to you, the writing is what I will focus on, including with dirty screenshots and any sundry components that might not be visually-compelling or aligned with my brand colors.

From now on, you can still expect some news, resources, and writing related to sovereign debt, though the focus will no longer be exclusively on debt, nor on EM. I’ll be writing a lot more about macroeconomics, trade, geopolitics, sanctions, and those types of topics as well. Thank you again for reading (and for clicking on my ads to support this free resource), and remember that your feedback is always encouraged!