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Macro

Macro

+2

Winner take all: the year of the unipolar market

Dec 19, 2024

•

15 min read

Winner take all: the year of the unipolar market

Global capital markets are becoming increasingly unipolar even as geopolitics become more multipolar.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+3

Which emerging markets have the best demographic growth?

Dec 5, 2024

•

12 min read

Which emerging markets have the best demographic growth?

Many - but not all - emerging markets are set to benefit from demographic tailwinds

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+7

Sink or swim: Trump 2.0 reality confronts emerging markets

Nov 14, 2024

•

9 min read

Sink or swim: Trump 2.0 reality confronts emerging markets

Tariffs, deglobalization set to shift growth from EMs to the U.S.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+3

Trump's red wave puts emerging markets under water

Nov 7, 2024

•

11 min read

Trump's red wave puts emerging markets under water

Double-whammy of higher U.S. yields and stronger dollar, with peak deglobalization still to come

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+4

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

Oct 24, 2024

•

11 min read

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

High economic-political uncertainty paired with low volatility amplifies market risks

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Sri Lanka

+3

Sri Lanka Election: Any Port in a Storm

Sep 26, 2024

•

7 min read

Sri Lanka Election: Any Port in a Storm

Markets cautious on newly-elected President Dissanayake, renegotiations

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

Is the Washington Consensus Dead?

Sep 19, 2024

•

6 min read

Is the Washington Consensus Dead?

Small island states and large emerging markets have the biggest budget deficits in 2024

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+1

Where is emerging market growth fastest?

Sep 12, 2024

•

10 min read

Where is emerging market growth fastest?

EM convergence to rich-world wealth levels is concentrated in Europe and Asia

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

FX

+2

Reserve flunkies

Aug 2, 2024

•

7 min read

Reserve flunkies

It's not just the usual suspects: some oil exporters also have low official reserves levels

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

The IMF's "extend and pretend" deal with Pakistan

Jul 26, 2024

•

11 min read

The IMF's "extend and pretend" deal with Pakistan

Instead of "one and done", Islamabad and the Fund kick the can down the road.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+4

Is another crisis brewing in Turkey?

Jul 13, 2024

•

8 min read

Is another crisis brewing in Turkey?

Rampant inflation and booming credit are causing external imbalances

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

The $20 trillion investment gap

Jul 3, 2024

•

10 min read

The $20 trillion investment gap

Does international investment into the US cause asset bubbles?

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+5

Is the G7 the new EM?

Jun 26, 2024

•

12 min read

Is the G7 the new EM?

The "new" emerging markets: rich-world malaise reflects globalization's discontents

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

South Africa enters uncharted waters

Jun 3, 2024

•

11 min read

South Africa enters uncharted waters

The ruling ANC party loses its parliamentary majority for the first time in the post-apartheid era

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

Tracking sovereign stress in 45 emerging markets

May 20, 2024

•

12 min read

Tracking sovereign stress in 45 emerging markets

The most-at-risk-country won't come as much of a surprise

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+5

Egypt: short-term pain, long-term gain

May 13, 2024

•

14 min read

Egypt: short-term pain, long-term gain

Famous last words, but this time could be different.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

EM is ahead of DM in the global credit cycle

May 6, 2024

•

11 min read

EM is ahead of DM in the global credit cycle

Amid negative credit gaps everywhere, inflections mostly in EM

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Inflation

+2

Supply constraints are driving US inflation

May 2, 2024

•

9 min read

Supply constraints are driving US inflation

Higher for (a bit) longer, but don't buy into inflationista hype

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Inflation

+2

What does US inflation mean for EM sovereigns?

Apr 29, 2024

•

9 min read

What does US inflation mean for EM sovereigns?

DMOs should be prepared for Fed rate cuts

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

FX

+3

Are markets underpricing geopolitical risks?

Apr 25, 2024

•

10 min read

Are markets underpricing geopolitical risks?

Oil prices have actually declined in the wake of Iran-Israel

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+6

The dollar-debt imbalance

Apr 22, 2024

•

10 min read

The dollar-debt imbalance

Unsustainable USD dominance here to stay

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

Wall Street's fear gauge rises

Apr 18, 2024

•

10 min read

Wall Street's fear gauge rises

Plus IMF/WB Spring Meetings policy updates

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

The Modi mojo is working

Apr 15, 2024

•

8 min read

The Modi mojo is working

India's economy is in great shape as it heads to the polls... but something's off

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+1

Central banks to weigh on 2024 markets

Apr 11, 2024

•

7 min read

Central banks to weigh on 2024 markets

Decreasing central bank asset purchases withdraw market liquidity

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

LICs

+3

Mapping the world’s output gaps

Dec 14, 2023

•

5 min read

Mapping the world’s output gaps

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
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