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SovereignDebt

Egypt

+1

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Jun 6, 2025

•

10 min read

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Checklist: overvalued currency, high external debt, weak revenues, low reserves

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

El Salvador

+5

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

May 30, 2025

•

12 min read

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

Improvement on key macro-fiscal metrics in the region points to strengthening policy credibility

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+4

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

May 23, 2025

•

12 min read

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

Have a weaker dollar and the Covid inflation hangover eroded EM competitiveness?

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

El Salvador

+1

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

May 16, 2025

•

9 min read

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

Hint: this country exchanged some debt in 2023 and has since secured an IMF deal.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

SovereignDebt

+1

EM sovereign debt risks are highest in this country

May 9, 2025

•

11 min read

EM sovereign debt risks are highest in this country

The Sovereign Stress Tracker covers 43 market-access emerging-frontier markets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+1

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

May 2, 2025

•

9 min read

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

Hint: it's not the "E", or the "S", but the "....

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

AdvancedEconomies

+2

The time for geographic diversification is now

Apr 11, 2025

•

9 min read

The time for geographic diversification is now

U.S. Treasuries lose their safe haven status amid a secular rotation away from U.S. assets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

AEs

+4

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Mar 6, 2025

•

13 min read

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Policy volatility has receded in many EMs but increased in the G7.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Brazil

+7

How are EM investors navigating 2025's policy minefield?

Feb 20, 2025

•

14 min read

How are EM investors navigating 2025's policy minefield?

Opportunities still to be found despite heightened risks to FMs and local currency.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Kyrgyzstan

+4

Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

Jan 30, 2025

•

11 min read

Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

The Central Asian republic is aiming to place a $1.7bn debut hard currency bond as sanctions-busting accusations mount.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Saudi Arabia

+1

Will Saudi Arabia's spending largesse pay off?

Jan 9, 2025

•

11 min read

Will Saudi Arabia's spending largesse pay off?

Riyadh kicks off 2025 issuance amid investor enthusiasm for Vision 2030

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+2

Sovereign Stress Tracker: Why have risks moderated in Argentina?

Dec 12, 2024

•

9 min read

Sovereign Stress Tracker: Why have risks moderated in Argentina?

Argentina is the Tracker's most-improved sovereign. Here's why.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+2

Sovereign Stress Tracker: Argentina's stunning turnaround

Nov 28, 2024

•

13 min read

Sovereign Stress Tracker: Argentina's stunning turnaround

Argentina is the Tracker's most-improved country thanks to astonishing economic policy results

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+1

EM sovereign strains inch upward in 2024, but remain historically low

Nov 21, 2024

•

9 min read

EM sovereign strains inch upward in 2024, but remain historically low

Asset class maturity is evident in EM amid the post-pandemic inflationary shock

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+7

Sink or swim: Trump 2.0 reality confronts emerging markets

Nov 14, 2024

•

9 min read

Sink or swim: Trump 2.0 reality confronts emerging markets

Tariffs, deglobalization set to shift growth from EMs to the U.S.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+3

Trump's red wave puts emerging markets under water

Nov 7, 2024

•

11 min read

Trump's red wave puts emerging markets under water

Double-whammy of higher U.S. yields and stronger dollar, with peak deglobalization still to come

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

LICs

+2

Emerging economies adrift in a high-debt world

Oct 31, 2024

•

9 min read

Emerging economies adrift in a high-debt world

With global public debt at $100 trillion, many countries need more IMF-World Bank help.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+1

Volatile US Treasuries spell trouble for emerging market debt

Oct 10, 2024

•

9 min read

Volatile US Treasuries spell trouble for emerging market debt

The Fed's data-dependence is clouding EM's mostly-benign cutting cycle outlook

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Sri Lanka

+3

Sri Lanka Election: Any Port in a Storm

Sep 26, 2024

•

7 min read

Sri Lanka Election: Any Port in a Storm

Markets cautious on newly-elected President Dissanayake, renegotiations

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

Is the Washington Consensus Dead?

Sep 19, 2024

•

6 min read

Is the Washington Consensus Dead?

Small island states and large emerging markets have the biggest budget deficits in 2024

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

The IMF's "extend and pretend" deal with Pakistan

Jul 26, 2024

•

11 min read

The IMF's "extend and pretend" deal with Pakistan

Instead of "one and done", Islamabad and the Fund kick the can down the road.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

LICs

+5

China's lending to developing nations declines

Jun 18, 2024

•

10 min read

China's lending to developing nations declines

Though Chinese creditors still hold more LMIC external debt than the G7 ex-Japan

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+1

The Geopolitics of Sovereign Debt

Jun 11, 2024

•

12 min read

The Geopolitics of Sovereign Debt

EMDE sovereign borrowers walk a tightrope in the fragmented creditor landscape

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

Tracking sovereign stress in 45 emerging markets

May 20, 2024

•

12 min read

Tracking sovereign stress in 45 emerging markets

The most-at-risk-country won't come as much of a surprise

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Inflation

+2

What does US inflation mean for EM sovereigns?

Apr 29, 2024

•

9 min read

What does US inflation mean for EM sovereigns?

DMOs should be prepared for Fed rate cuts

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
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