Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

Sep 29, 2025

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8 min read

I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

Forecasting the future of trade, state power, and industrial policy was well worth the trouble.

Paul Della Guardia

South Africa

Aug 15, 2025

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7 min read

The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

The country's current account deficit is likely to widen only slightly due to tariffs.

Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

Jun 30, 2025

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10 min read

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

USD weakness and U.S. outflows have been a boon to EM in 2025, so far.

Paul Della Guardia

Geopolitics

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Jun 20, 2025

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10 min read

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Brent is still only at $77, VIX is contained, gold is trading flat. Bigger market risks lie elsewhere.

Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Jun 16, 2025

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11 min read

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Trump could well be ushering in a golden age for emerging market assets.

Paul Della Guardia

Egypt

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Jun 6, 2025

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10 min read

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Checklist: overvalued currency, high external debt, weak revenues, low reserves

Paul Della Guardia

El Salvador

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

May 30, 2025

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12 min read

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

Improvement on key macro-fiscal metrics in the region points to strengthening policy credibility

Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

May 23, 2025

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12 min read

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

Have a weaker dollar and the Covid inflation hangover eroded EM competitiveness?

Paul Della Guardia

El Salvador

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

May 16, 2025

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9 min read

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

Hint: this country exchanged some debt in 2023 and has since secured an IMF deal.

Paul Della Guardia

SovereignDebt

May 9, 2025

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11 min read

EM sovereign debt risks are highest in this country

The Sovereign Stress Tracker covers 43 market-access emerging-frontier markets

Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

May 2, 2025

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9 min read

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

Hint: it's not the "E", or the "S", but the "....

Paul Della Guardia

Trade uncertainty clouds growth prospects

Apr 27, 2025

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8 min read

Trade uncertainty clouds growth prospects

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings have concluded on a somber note.

Paul Della Guardia

Inflation

Apr 18, 2025

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12 min read

Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

Trump's levies could send U.S. inflation 1.4 percentage points higher.

Paul Della Guardia

AdvancedEconomies

The time for geographic diversification is now

Apr 11, 2025

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9 min read

The time for geographic diversification is now

U.S. Treasuries lose their safe haven status amid a secular rotation away from U.S. assets

Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

Apr 4, 2025

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12 min read

Tariff announcement drives market rout

The U.S. tariff bazooka rips through global markets as investors flock to havens

Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

Mar 27, 2025

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10 min read

Chilly market reaction to auto tariffs

DXY and SPX are both down again but don't tend to stay down together for long.

Paul Della Guardia

UAE

Mar 23, 2025

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8 min read

Investors search for trade war havens

Allocators eye tariff spat hedges but spare U.S. and Canadian government bonds.

Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

Mar 13, 2025

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8 min read

The Times They Are a-Changin'

EM sovereign debt will no longer be the exclusive focus of this newsletter.

Paul Della Guardia

AEs

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Mar 6, 2025

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13 min read

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Policy volatility has receded in many EMs but increased in the G7.

Paul Della Guardia

Russia

Feb 27, 2025

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14 min read

Mr. Zelensky goes to Washington

The Ukrainian president will sign a minerals agreement with Donald Trump on Friday.

Paul Della Guardia

Brazil

How are EM investors navigating 2025's policy minefield?

Feb 20, 2025

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14 min read

How are EM investors navigating 2025's policy minefield?

Opportunities still to be found despite heightened risks to FMs and local currency.

Paul Della Guardia

Kyrgyzstan

Jan 30, 2025

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11 min read

Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

The Central Asian republic is aiming to place a $1.7bn debut hard currency bond as sanctions-busting accusations mount.

Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

Jan 26, 2025

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12 min read

Why Trump's tariffs aren't that bad

Global trade imbalances are out of control and need to be reined in.

Paul Della Guardia

Russia

Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

Jan 16, 2025

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12 min read

Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

The incoming U.S. President has set a 5% of GDP defense expenditure threshold.

Paul Della Guardia

Saudi Arabia

Jan 9, 2025

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11 min read

Will Saudi Arabia's spending largesse pay off?

Riyadh kicks off 2025 issuance amid investor enthusiasm for Vision 2030

Paul Della Guardia

Paul Della Guardia

I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

EM sovereign debt risks are highest in this country

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

Trade uncertainty clouds growth prospects

Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

The time for geographic diversification is now

Tariff announcement drives market rout

Chilly market reaction to auto tariffs

Investors search for trade war havens

The Times They Are a-Changin'

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Mr. Zelensky goes to Washington

How are EM investors navigating 2025's policy minefield?

Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

Why Trump's tariffs aren't that bad

Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

Will Saudi Arabia's spending largesse pay off?

SOVEREIGN VIBE

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