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AdvancedEconomies

Inflation

+4

Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

Apr 18, 2025

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12 min read

Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

Trump's levies could send U.S. inflation 1.4 percentage points higher.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

AdvancedEconomies

+2

The time for geographic diversification is now

Apr 11, 2025

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9 min read

The time for geographic diversification is now

U.S. Treasuries lose their safe haven status amid a secular rotation away from U.S. assets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

+2

Chilly market reaction to auto tariffs

Mar 27, 2025

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10 min read

Chilly market reaction to auto tariffs

DXY and SPX are both down again but don't tend to stay down together for long.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

+3

The Times They Are a-Changin'

Mar 13, 2025

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8 min read

The Times They Are a-Changin'

EM sovereign debt will no longer be the exclusive focus of this newsletter.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

AEs

+4

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Mar 6, 2025

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13 min read

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Policy volatility has receded in many EMs but increased in the G7.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

+4

Why Trump's tariffs aren't that bad

Jan 26, 2025

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12 min read

Why Trump's tariffs aren't that bad

Global trade imbalances are out of control and need to be reined in.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Russia

+3

Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

Jan 16, 2025

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12 min read

Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

The incoming U.S. President has set a 5% of GDP defense expenditure threshold.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+3

Which emerging markets have the best demographic growth?

Dec 5, 2024

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12 min read

Which emerging markets have the best demographic growth?

Many - but not all - emerging markets are set to benefit from demographic tailwinds

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+4

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

Oct 24, 2024

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11 min read

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

High economic-political uncertainty paired with low volatility amplifies market risks

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

The $20 trillion investment gap

Jul 3, 2024

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10 min read

The $20 trillion investment gap

Does international investment into the US cause asset bubbles?

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+5

Is the G7 the new EM?

Jun 26, 2024

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12 min read

Is the G7 the new EM?

The "new" emerging markets: rich-world malaise reflects globalization's discontents

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
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