LogoSOVEREIGN VIBE
Login
Join Free

EMDEs

De-dollarization

+2

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

Jun 30, 2025

•

10 min read

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

USD weakness and U.S. outflows have been a boon to EM in 2025, so far.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+1

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Jun 16, 2025

•

11 min read

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Trump could well be ushering in a golden age for emerging market assets.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+1

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

May 2, 2025

•

9 min read

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

Hint: it's not the "E", or the "S", but the "....

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

+2

Chilly market reaction to auto tariffs

Mar 27, 2025

•

10 min read

Chilly market reaction to auto tariffs

DXY and SPX are both down again but don't tend to stay down together for long.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

+3

The Times They Are a-Changin'

Mar 13, 2025

•

8 min read

The Times They Are a-Changin'

EM sovereign debt will no longer be the exclusive focus of this newsletter.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

AEs

+4

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Mar 6, 2025

•

13 min read

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Policy volatility has receded in many EMs but increased in the G7.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

+4

Why Trump's tariffs aren't that bad

Jan 26, 2025

•

12 min read

Why Trump's tariffs aren't that bad

Global trade imbalances are out of control and need to be reined in.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

Winner take all: the year of the unipolar market

Dec 19, 2024

•

15 min read

Winner take all: the year of the unipolar market

Global capital markets are becoming increasingly unipolar even as geopolitics become more multipolar.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+2

Sovereign Stress Tracker: Why have risks moderated in Argentina?

Dec 12, 2024

•

9 min read

Sovereign Stress Tracker: Why have risks moderated in Argentina?

Argentina is the Tracker's most-improved sovereign. Here's why.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+3

Which emerging markets have the best demographic growth?

Dec 5, 2024

•

12 min read

Which emerging markets have the best demographic growth?

Many - but not all - emerging markets are set to benefit from demographic tailwinds

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+2

Sovereign Stress Tracker: Argentina's stunning turnaround

Nov 28, 2024

•

13 min read

Sovereign Stress Tracker: Argentina's stunning turnaround

Argentina is the Tracker's most-improved country thanks to astonishing economic policy results

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+1

EM sovereign strains inch upward in 2024, but remain historically low

Nov 21, 2024

•

9 min read

EM sovereign strains inch upward in 2024, but remain historically low

Asset class maturity is evident in EM amid the post-pandemic inflationary shock

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+7

Sink or swim: Trump 2.0 reality confronts emerging markets

Nov 14, 2024

•

9 min read

Sink or swim: Trump 2.0 reality confronts emerging markets

Tariffs, deglobalization set to shift growth from EMs to the U.S.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+3

Trump's red wave puts emerging markets under water

Nov 7, 2024

•

11 min read

Trump's red wave puts emerging markets under water

Double-whammy of higher U.S. yields and stronger dollar, with peak deglobalization still to come

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

LICs

+2

Emerging economies adrift in a high-debt world

Oct 31, 2024

•

9 min read

Emerging economies adrift in a high-debt world

With global public debt at $100 trillion, many countries need more IMF-World Bank help.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+4

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

Oct 24, 2024

•

11 min read

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

High economic-political uncertainty paired with low volatility amplifies market risks

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Inflation

+1

Which emerging markets have an inflation problem?

Oct 17, 2024

•

11 min read

Which emerging markets have an inflation problem?

Rampant inflation is most prevalent in lower-middle income countries, except for Argentina and Turkey

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+1

Volatile US Treasuries spell trouble for emerging market debt

Oct 10, 2024

•

9 min read

Volatile US Treasuries spell trouble for emerging market debt

The Fed's data-dependence is clouding EM's mostly-benign cutting cycle outlook

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Iran

+4

Should investors worry about Israel-Iran?

Oct 3, 2024

•

9 min read

Should investors worry about Israel-Iran?

The recent escalation presents downside market risks, albeit these are limited.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Sri Lanka

+3

Sri Lanka Election: Any Port in a Storm

Sep 26, 2024

•

7 min read

Sri Lanka Election: Any Port in a Storm

Markets cautious on newly-elected President Dissanayake, renegotiations

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

Is the Washington Consensus Dead?

Sep 19, 2024

•

6 min read

Is the Washington Consensus Dead?

Small island states and large emerging markets have the biggest budget deficits in 2024

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+1

Where is emerging market growth fastest?

Sep 12, 2024

•

10 min read

Where is emerging market growth fastest?

EM convergence to rich-world wealth levels is concentrated in Europe and Asia

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

+2

Right-wing populism on the rise in EM

Aug 18, 2024

•

11 min read

Right-wing populism on the rise in EM

2024: string of electoral victories for right-wing populists across emerging markets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

FX

+2

Reserve flunkies

Aug 2, 2024

•

7 min read

Reserve flunkies

It's not just the usual suspects: some oil exporters also have low official reserves levels

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

The IMF's "extend and pretend" deal with Pakistan

Jul 26, 2024

•

11 min read

The IMF's "extend and pretend" deal with Pakistan

Instead of "one and done", Islamabad and the Fund kick the can down the road.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
Load more
SOVEREIGN VIBE

SOVEREIGN VIBE

Global Markets, Identifying Opportunities, Navigating Risk


Home

© 2026 SOVEREIGN VIBE.
Report abusePrivacy policyTerms of use
beehiivPowered by beehiiv