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Geopolitics

Geopolitics

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Jun 20, 2025

•

10 min read

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Brent is still only at $77, VIX is contained, gold is trading flat. Bigger market risks lie elsewhere.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Inflation

+4

Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

Apr 18, 2025

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12 min read

Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

Trump's levies could send U.S. inflation 1.4 percentage points higher.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

AdvancedEconomies

+2

The time for geographic diversification is now

Apr 11, 2025

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9 min read

The time for geographic diversification is now

U.S. Treasuries lose their safe haven status amid a secular rotation away from U.S. assets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

+3

The Times They Are a-Changin'

Mar 13, 2025

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8 min read

The Times They Are a-Changin'

EM sovereign debt will no longer be the exclusive focus of this newsletter.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Russia

+2

Mr. Zelensky goes to Washington

Feb 27, 2025

•

14 min read

Mr. Zelensky goes to Washington

The Ukrainian president will sign a minerals agreement with Donald Trump on Friday.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Kyrgyzstan

+4

Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

Jan 30, 2025

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11 min read

Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

The Central Asian republic is aiming to place a $1.7bn debut hard currency bond as sanctions-busting accusations mount.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Russia

+3

Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

Jan 16, 2025

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12 min read

Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

The incoming U.S. President has set a 5% of GDP defense expenditure threshold.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Bangladesh

+2

The 2024 "Country of the Year"

Jan 2, 2025

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13 min read

The 2024 "Country of the Year"

The Economist's annual designation is notable for how poorly past winners have fared in ensuing years.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+4

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

Oct 24, 2024

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11 min read

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

High economic-political uncertainty paired with low volatility amplifies market risks

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Iran

+4

Should investors worry about Israel-Iran?

Oct 3, 2024

•

9 min read

Should investors worry about Israel-Iran?

The recent escalation presents downside market risks, albeit these are limited.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

+2

Right-wing populism on the rise in EM

Aug 18, 2024

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11 min read

Right-wing populism on the rise in EM

2024: string of electoral victories for right-wing populists across emerging markets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

LICs

+5

China's lending to developing nations declines

Jun 18, 2024

•

10 min read

China's lending to developing nations declines

Though Chinese creditors still hold more LMIC external debt than the G7 ex-Japan

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Commodities

+2

Berlin Energy Forum - Trip Notes

May 27, 2024

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15 min read

Berlin Energy Forum - Trip Notes

Limited impact of energy sanctions against Russia

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

FX

+3

Are markets underpricing geopolitical risks?

Apr 25, 2024

•

10 min read

Are markets underpricing geopolitical risks?

Oil prices have actually declined in the wake of Iran-Israel

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

+6

The dollar-debt imbalance

Apr 22, 2024

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10 min read

The dollar-debt imbalance

Unsustainable USD dominance here to stay

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Macro

+2

Wall Street's fear gauge rises

Apr 18, 2024

•

10 min read

Wall Street's fear gauge rises

Plus IMF/WB Spring Meetings policy updates

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

AEs

+2

2024 Elections - Global Snapshot

Apr 9, 2024

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11 min read

2024 Elections - Global Snapshot

Populist forces on the march

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

+2

Senegalese exceptionalism, for now 🇸🇳

Apr 4, 2024

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13 min read

Senegalese exceptionalism, for now 🇸🇳

The ethnic X factor: why democratic stability is so rare in the Sahel

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Russia

+3

On the hunt for Russia's reserves

Mar 22, 2024

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10 min read

On the hunt for Russia's reserves

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Russia

+4

Ukraine: two, ten, or thirty years on?

Feb 24, 2024

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9 min read

Ukraine: two, ten, or thirty years on?

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

Deglobalization

+3

Quick take on Gabon’s coup d’Etat

Aug 31, 2023

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11 min read

Quick take on Gabon’s coup d’Etat

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

+2

Russia’s trading partners steer clear of rubles

Aug 15, 2023

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4 min read

Russia’s trading partners steer clear of rubles

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

+2

De-dollarization musings

Jul 21, 2023

•

7 min read

De-dollarization musings

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
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