South AfricaSouth Africa
+1+1
The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

The country's current account deficit is likely to widen only slightly due to tariffs.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
De-dollarizationDe-dollarization
+2+2
Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

USD weakness and U.S. outflows have been a boon to EM in 2025, so far.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
GeopoliticsGeopolitics
Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Brent is still only at $77, VIX is contained, gold is trading flat. Bigger market risks lie elsewhere.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
CurrenciesCurrencies
+1+1
A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Trump could well be ushering in a golden age for emerging market assets.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
EgyptEgypt
+1+1
A classic case of economic mismanagement

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Checklist: overvalued currency, high external debt, weak revenues, low reserves

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
El SalvadorEl Salvador
+5+5
Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

Improvement on key macro-fiscal metrics in the region points to strengthening policy credibility

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
CurrenciesCurrencies
+4+4
What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

Have a weaker dollar and the Covid inflation hangover eroded EM competitiveness?

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
El SalvadorEl Salvador
+1+1
This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

Hint: this country exchanged some debt in 2023 and has since secured an IMF deal.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
SovereignDebtSovereignDebt
+1+1
EM sovereign debt risks are highest in this country

EM sovereign debt risks are highest in this country

The Sovereign Stress Tracker covers 43 market-access emerging-frontier markets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
EMDEsEMDEs
+1+1
Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

Hint: it's not the "E", or the "S", but the "....

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
Trade uncertainty clouds growth prospects

Trade uncertainty clouds growth prospects

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings have concluded on a somber note.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
InflationInflation
+4+4
Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

Trump's levies could send U.S. inflation 1.4 percentage points higher.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
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