Geopolitics

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GeopoliticsGeopolitics
Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Brent is still only at $77, VIX is contained, gold is trading flat. Bigger market risks lie elsewhere.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
InflationInflation
+4+4
Tariffs poised to re-ignite U.S. inflation

Tariffs poised to re-ignite U.S. inflation

Trump's levies could send U.S. inflation 1.4 percentage points higher.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
AdvancedEconomiesAdvancedEconomies
+2+2
The time for geographic diversification is now

The time for geographic diversification is now

U.S. Treasuries lose their safe haven status amid a secular rotation away from U.S. assets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
DeglobalizationDeglobalization
+3+3
The Times They Are a-Changin'

The Times They Are a-Changin'

EM sovereign debt will no longer be the exclusive focus of this newsletter.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
RussiaRussia
+2+2
Mr. Zelensky goes to Washington

Mr. Zelensky goes to Washington

The Ukrainian president will sign a minerals agreement with Donald Trump on Friday.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan
+4+4
Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

The Central Asian republic is aiming to place a $1.7bn debut hard currency bond as sanctions-busting accusations mount.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
RussiaRussia
+3+3
Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

Can European governments meet Trump’s defense spending demands?

The incoming U.S. President has set a 5% of GDP defense expenditure threshold.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
BangladeshBangladesh
+2+2
The 2024 "Country of the Year"

The 2024 "Country of the Year"

The Economist's annual designation is notable for how poorly past winners have fared in ensuing years.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
MacroMacro
+4+4
Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

High economic-political uncertainty paired with low volatility amplifies market risks

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
IranIran
+4+4
Should investors worry about Israel-Iran?

Should investors worry about Israel-Iran?

The recent escalation presents downside market risks, albeit these are limited.

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
DeglobalizationDeglobalization
+2+2
Right-wing populism on the rise in EM

Right-wing populism on the rise in EM

2024: string of electoral victories for right-wing populists across emerging markets

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia
LICsLICs
+5+5
China's lending to developing nations declines

China's lending to developing nations declines

Though Chinese creditors still hold more LMIC external debt than the G7 ex-Japan

Paul Della Guardia
Paul Della Guardia