I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

Forecasting the future of trade, state power, and industrial policy was well worth the trouble.

The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

The country's current account deficit is likely to widen only slightly due to tariffs.

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

USD weakness and U.S. outflows have been a boon to EM in 2025, so far.

Can tariffs result in higher imported inflation?

Trump's levies could send U.S. inflation 1.4 percentage points higher.

Tariff announcement drives market rout

The U.S. tariff bazooka rips through global markets as investors flock to havens

Chilly market reaction to auto tariffs

DXY and SPX are both down again but don't tend to stay down together for long.

Investors search for trade war havens

Allocators eye tariff spat hedges but spare U.S. and Canadian government bonds.

The Times They Are a-Changin'

EM sovereign debt will no longer be the exclusive focus of this newsletter.

The role reversal in emerging and mature markets

Policy volatility has receded in many EMs but increased in the G7.

Kyrgyzstan plans maiden Eurobond amid sanctions controversy

The Central Asian republic is aiming to place a $1.7bn debut hard currency bond as sanctions-busting accusations mount.

Why Trump's tariffs aren't that bad

Global trade imbalances are out of control and need to be reined in.

The 2024 "Country of the Year"

The Economist's annual designation is notable for how poorly past winners have fared in ensuing years.

Winner take all: the year of the unipolar market

Global capital markets are becoming increasingly unipolar even as geopolitics become more multipolar.

Sink or swim: Trump 2.0 reality confronts emerging markets

Tariffs, deglobalization set to shift growth from EMs to the U.S.

Trump's red wave puts emerging markets under water

Double-whammy of higher U.S. yields and stronger dollar, with peak deglobalization still to come

Rising uncertainty fails to rattle global markets

High economic-political uncertainty paired with low volatility amplifies market risks

Right-wing populism on the rise in EM

2024: string of electoral victories for right-wing populists across emerging markets

Is the G7 the new EM?

The "new" emerging markets: rich-world malaise reflects globalization's discontents

China's lending to developing nations declines

Though Chinese creditors still hold more LMIC external debt than the G7 ex-Japan

Berlin Energy Forum - Trip Notes

Limited impact of energy sanctions against Russia

The dollar-debt imbalance

Unsustainable USD dominance here to stay

On the hunt for Russia's reserves

Ukraine: two, ten, or thirty years on?

Multilateralism limps onward in Marrakech

France’s FDI in Africa