Archive

I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

Forecasting the future of trade, state power, and industrial policy was well worth the trouble.

Paul Della Guardia

South Africa

Aug 15, 2025

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7 min read

The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

The country's current account deficit is likely to widen only slightly due to tariffs.

Paul Della Guardia

De-dollarization

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

Jun 30, 2025

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10 min read

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

USD weakness and U.S. outflows have been a boon to EM in 2025, so far.

Paul Della Guardia

Geopolitics

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Jun 20, 2025

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10 min read

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

Brent is still only at $77, VIX is contained, gold is trading flat. Bigger market risks lie elsewhere.

Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Jun 16, 2025

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11 min read

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

Trump could well be ushering in a golden age for emerging market assets.

Paul Della Guardia

Egypt

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Jun 6, 2025

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10 min read

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Checklist: overvalued currency, high external debt, weak revenues, low reserves

Paul Della Guardia

El Salvador

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

May 30, 2025

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12 min read

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

Improvement on key macro-fiscal metrics in the region points to strengthening policy credibility

Paul Della Guardia

Currencies

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

May 23, 2025

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12 min read

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

Have a weaker dollar and the Covid inflation hangover eroded EM competitiveness?

Paul Della Guardia

El Salvador

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

May 16, 2025

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9 min read

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

Hint: this country exchanged some debt in 2023 and has since secured an IMF deal.

Paul Della Guardia

SovereignDebt

May 9, 2025

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11 min read

EM sovereign debt risks are highest in this country

The Sovereign Stress Tracker covers 43 market-access emerging-frontier markets

Paul Della Guardia

EMDEs

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

May 2, 2025

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9 min read

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

Hint: it's not the "E", or the "S", but the "....

Paul Della Guardia

Trade uncertainty clouds growth prospects

Apr 27, 2025

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8 min read

Trade uncertainty clouds growth prospects

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings have concluded on a somber note.

Paul Della Guardia

...

I participated in Bridgewater's competition and almost won.

The 30% headline tariff figure overstates risks to South Africa

Can the weak-dollar tailwind for emerging markets last?

Markets are nonplussed by Israel-Iran. Here's why.

A New Safe Haven Framework for a Multipolar World

A classic case of economic mismanagement

Why is country risk moderating in Latin America?

What currency strength means for sovereign creditworthiness

This EM is most-improved on sovereign risk metrics in 2025

EM sovereign debt risks are highest in this country

Which ESG Factors Matter to EM Sovereign Bond Investors?

Trade uncertainty clouds growth prospects

SOVEREIGN VIBE

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